My understanding is that many (most?) historians disavow the “great man” theory of history and hold the belief that larger social forces make a far greater difference in historical events than individuals do. I can’t see how you can hold that point of view during the Trump Era. Here are some thoughts I have about this wild time.
Trump is singular. His characteristcs that make him so include: his jedi-level mastery of media, both old and new, including his open desire to gain influence by inflaming negative polarization. His complete shamelessness with regards to moral integrity. His will to bend reality by fiat and willingness to attempt to do so. His complete disinterest in governance.
Trump was not inevitable. People like the expression that Trump is not a disease, but a symptom of a disease, and I don’t contest that in the least. But as Covid has certainly taught us this year, the range of symptoms that a disease brings about can vary wildly. While Trump certainly now has something of a death-grip on the Republican Party, this was not exactly the case during the republican primaries in 2016. He did not win with a majority, but with a plurality of the Republican popular vote. If the choice had simply been Trump vs. Rubio (to split the difference between Kasich and Cruz) Rubio certainly might have run away with it.
What if’s? Rubio certainly might have lost against Hillary, and some might argue that 4 years with her at the wheel would have made Trump inevitable in 2020, but there has been some pretty solid reporting claimed that Trump never actually intended to become president, but just wanted to use the campaigns to boost his profile. So if Hillary had won in 2016 we might have had any number of Republican candidates this time around, Marco Rubio might try again, or Ted Cruz, or even J.D. Vance or Tucker Carlson. Even of those more populist candidates, point number 1 of Trump being a singular figure would hold.
Trump has fed fringe groups to they point where they have gained critical mass and can run on their own. Again, there are certainly other forces that have lent energy to Q-Anon, white Christian nationalism, and the radical left, and maybe they would have reached critical mass at some point anyway, but Trump emphatically removed the question. I believe that all of these movements will be much harder to combat and defeat by virtue of Trump’s presidency than would have been the case otherwise.
So what? The biggest lesson I would take in summary is the way that leadership really matters. I do think that the elite denigration of the “Great Man” theory of history may filter down to a popular ambivalence about the particulars of one’s leaders and an overemphasis on broader social and structural realities. To be sure, these realities are very important, but I think that a greater balance is necessary. As our society has become more complex the role of government in our lives has become greater, and In a representative democracy we have a tremendous responsibility when we choose our leaders. I actually am somewhat encouraged that the democratic party has made what I see to be a responsible choice in nominating and electing Joe Biden, flawed as he is. I hope that the Right can take a lesson from them.